Using images taken by their sister company's satellite and data gathered from thousands of unclassified sources, two analysts from Tampa have laid out how they think the Russians could be preparing the battlefield for a future conflict in its former Baltic states.
"The Russian MO is creating a pretext for exploiting something that may not be a ground truth, but they can (effect) with huge propaganda operations," said Andrew Huneycutt, an analyst with Tampa-based Radiant Solutions.
In the case of the Baltics, that means the Russians behaving as they did in Ukraine, by stoking flames in ethnic Russian enclaves, paving the way for destablizing unrest at the least.
Huneycutt and his colleagues took hundreds of data points, like locations of ethnic enclaves, political and religious institutions, roads, rail lines, media outlets and many others, and laid them over satellite imagery of the Baltic region to come up with their thesis. It was recently published in the latest issue of Radiant Spotlight. The company's monthly publication, it was launched in May to "offer visual truth and analysis to unfolding global events to drive social good and global transparency." It showcases the value of geospatial intelligence, which is simply put using maps and data about human activity to figure things out.
"Following the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the continued presence of Russian forces in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, the threat of conflict between the west and Russia is greater than it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union," the authors write. "The area likely to be ground zero for such a conflict is the Baltic region, which includes Estonia, Lavia and Lithuania."
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The report isn't saying the Russians will roll tanks into the Baltics. But the region is being subjected to Russia's massive propaganda operations, which helps shape any future combat zone in their favor.
The Russians are using information and cyber operations, proxies, economic and political influence and clandestine operations to achieve their objectives, their report states.
In the Baltics, the Russians are using a combination of nonviolent covert action to "influence or undermine target governments, violent but deniable covert actions and traditional overt aggression."
To help determine the most vulnerable areas, Huneycutt and colleagues use Radiant Solutions' Human Landscape datasets, organized across 13 core themes of human geography including religion, ethnicity, language, economy, communications and transportation systems, education, resources and significant events, and plot those data points over satellite imagery provided by Maxar Technologies DigitalGlobe, a sister company to Radiant Solutions.
The primary Russian targets are areas with ethnic minority Russian populations and other Russian speakers like older Poles and Belarussians. who are "the most susceptible because they tend to already hold a pro-Russian sentiment."
Many of them, the report notes, are integrated into the government and military, "making them a greater risk due to their influence."
As with any other place, vulnerable populations also lack basic services, employment and education.
The report also notes how the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea which sits between Lithuania and Poland is being increasingly reinforced by Russian troops and equipment, including air defense systems that cover much of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. And it offers details about how Russian military exercises, called ZAPAD, practiced seizing what's known as the Suwalki Gap, the border between northeast Poland and southern Lithuania that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus.
The primary purpose of the Radian Spotlight report, however, was not to examine Russian military might, but the human conditions that would allow the Russians an advantage. And how to blunt it.
"By providing an understanding of key demographics and social vulnerability," the report states, "Human Landscape helps analysts evaluate the effectiveness of Russia's new generation warfare and guides counter-influence operations."
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Since my last column, the Pentagon announced the death of a soldier who was supporting Operations Resolute Support and Freedom's Sentinel.
Spc. James A. Slape, 23, from Morehead City, North Carolina, died Oct. 4, 2018, in Helmand Province, Afghanistan, as a result of wounds sustained from an improvised explosive device. The incident is under investigation.
Slape was assigned to 60th Troop Command, North Carolina Army National Guard, Washington, North Carolina.
There have been 2,347 U.S. troop deaths in support of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan; 54 U.S. troop deaths and one civilian Department of Defense employee death in support of the follow-up, Operation Freedom's Sentinel; 56 troop deaths and two civilian deaths in support of Operation Inherent Resolve; one troop death in support of Operation Odyssey Lightning, the fight against Islamic State in Libya; one troop death in support of Operation Joint Guardian, one death classified as other contingency operations in the global war on terrorism; one death in Operation Octave Shield and six deaths in ongoing operations in Africa where, if they have a title, officials will not divulge it.
Contact Howard Altman at haltman@tampabay.com or (813) 225-3112. Follow @haltman.