In the wake of good fundraising news for Democrat David Shapiro, who is running against Rep. Vern Buchanan in Congressional District 16, political analysts are upping their odds of Shapiro's winning.
But what about Congressional District 15, where Rep. Dennis Ross is retiring, leaving his seat vacant?
Democratic candidate Kristen Carlson has had some fundraising success there. Finance reports covering her first three-month period as a candidate show her leading the field in both parties, though with the help of some of her own money.
But so far, the Cook Political Report, which raised its rating of Shapiro's chances, hasn't revised its "likely Republican" rating for CD 15. Neither has another respected analyst, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Shapiro's boost came after he raised $406,433 in the second quarter, bringing his total for the campaign to more than $1 million, including a $50,000 loan from himself in the first quarter.
Citing that and some negative news stories about Buchanan, Cook revised its rating of the district from likely Republican to the less-secure "leans Republican."
In CD 15, Democratic Andrew Learned is continuing a spirited primary race with Carlson, and Republicans Neil Combee and Ross Spano appear to be leading the field in the Republican primary. There's no clear frontrunner in either primary.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball, said there's not enough information yet to change the rating on CD15.
"I'm in a wait and see mode, to see how the primaries go and how much attention the national parties pay to it," he said.
The Democratic Party has put CD 15 on its Majority Makers list of Republican-held or open seats where it hopes to compete. But it hasn't put the district on its more prominent Red-to-Blue list, where the party has settled on a candidate it considers a strong contender.
Lee, Young pile up $$
After four months without adding a dime to his campaign war chest, state Sen. Tom Lee, R-Thonotosassa, added $50,000 in the month of June - a single check from the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, which funds GOP state Senate races.
That's a lesson in how hard it can be to unseat an incumbent Republican legislator. The committee is funded by 5- and 6-figure contributions from corporate interests.
Lee has raised $95,500 in all. He deactivated his political committee in anticipation of a possible run for Congress, but still has $2.3 million.
Lee's Democratic competitors can't match such numbers: $585 for the month and $7,740 total so far for Joy Gibson; and $625 for the month and $14,206 total for Kathy Lewis.
In Tampa's Senate District 18, meanwhile, Democratic challenger Rep. Janet Cruz is putting up respectable numbers -- $11,149 for the month, $158,321 total, plus $74,572 in party-paid campaign costs and more than $256,000 in her PAC.
But Cruz's opponent, Republican Sen. Dana Young, piled up $22,900 for the month, $476,207 total, $169,603 in party payments, and has more than $1 million in her PAC.
All for Transportation boosts its numbers
With its deadline approaching, All for Transportation, seeking to put a Hillsborough County transit sales tax referendum on the November election ballot, has sharply increased its petition numbers - 30,894 petitions turned in.
Of the 12,067 checked so far, 9,549 have been validated and 2,518 thrown out, a 79 percent validation rate.
The group must turn in its petitions by July 27. To succeed, 48,745 petitions must eventually be validated.
The petition drive seeks a 30-year countywide sales tax hike from 7 to 8 cents per dollar, with 45 percent of the resulting $280 million per year going to improved bus service and the rest to local governments for road and bridge improvements and maintenance.
Gun love from Spano
Rep. Ross Spano, who's running in the 5-way U.S. House District 15 Republican primary, figured the best way to get votes this weekend was to hold a concealed carry permit class in Plant City on Saturday.
As of mid-week, campaign consultant Brock Mikosky said the campaign had signed up 80 people, with 100 slots available. He expects to end up with a waiting list.
Spano has also held events to counter protests by gun control advocates holding March for our Lives events in the Tampa Bay area.